ASTANA – Kazakhstan is expanding power generation, gasification and oil refining as Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov presented the latest measures to develop the country’s energy sector at a government press conference on Aug. 25. The measures focus on increasing generating capacity, expanding gas access and refinery output, and preparing the energy system for the upcoming heating season.
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From deficit to surplus
According to Energy Ministry data, Kazakhstan expects to commission around 2.6 gigawatts (GW) of new generating capacity this year and another 845 megawatts (MW) in 2027. The new facilities are expected to allow the country to fully cover domestic electricity needs by the first quarter of 2027, with a surplus expected by year-end.
Financial analyst Gaziz Abishev said the shift would have implications beyond energy security, notably for investment.
“Ensuring sufficient electricity is a factor in investment attractiveness,” Abishev wrote on his Telegram channel, noting that reliable power supplies will be important for attracting investment into manufacturing as oil production growth slows over the longer term.
Kazakhstan also plans more than 7.5 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-generation capacity by 2029, alongside gas-fired and renewable generation.
More power, more industry
Abishev said the main sources of additional generation will be modernized coal plants and gas-fired facilities, with wind and solar also contributing. Nuclear power is unlikely to contribute significantly for another decade.
But eliminating the current deficit will not necessarily reduce electricity demand. If Kazakhstan attracts large-scale industrial investment, new production facilities could consume substantial amounts of power.
Abishev also pointed to the country’s relatively low level of industrial automation and robotization as potential sources of future electricity demand.
“The course toward increasing energy production is the right one,” he said, stressing the need to implement projects consistently and without delays.
Strengthening the southern grid
New generating capacity is being developed to address shortages in the southern energy zone, including projects at Almaty Combined Heat and Power Plant No. 2 (CHP-2) and CHP-3, a 1,000-megawatt (MW) plant in Turkistan and the recently commissioned 240-megawatt (MW) plant in Kyzylorda.
The southern grid will be strengthened through the 500-kilovolt (kV) Shu–Zhambyl and Zhambyl-Shymkent transmission lines. The Ulke-Karabatan project will connect the Western and Unified Power Systems.
Modernization of Almaty CHP-2 is 94% complete. The upgraded plant will provide up to 557 megawatts (MW) of electricity and 957 gigacalories (Gcal) of heat. Equipment deliveries for CHP-3 are 95% complete.
Gasification and refining
Kazakhstan’s gasification rate has reached 64.2%, giving 13.1 million people access to gas, Akkenzhenov said. The government aims to raise coverage to 80%.
A feasibility study is being prepared for the Ishim-Astana gas pipeline, following a memorandum with Russia signed last year. Kazakhstan is also expanding gas production and processing capacity to strengthen domestic supplies.
The Pavlodar Refinery capacity is planned to increase by 2.2 million tons, while the Shymkent Refinery is expected to double capacity by 2030.
Preparing for winter
Coal demand for the coming heating season is estimated at 7.3 million tons, down from 8.3 million tons last season as gasification expands.
A national digital platform using artificial intelligence and predictive analytics tracks coal from mines to consumers. It integrates data from 36 mining companies, 29,000 rail wagons, 586 coal-terminal operators and more than 1.2 million consumers, allowing authorities to identify potential shortages and supply delays in real time.
The test ahead
The immediate challenge is to ensure that new generating capacity comes online on schedule and reliably. For Kazakhstan, however, the longer-term question is whether additional power will simply eliminate the current deficit or help underpin broader industrial expansion.
If generation growth keeps pace with rising demand, the move toward an electricity surplus could strengthen energy security while supporting investment, industrial development and eventually electricity exports.
